This is a Tour that returns to its roots. First because it restarts in France: after three editions that began outside the borders (Denmark, Basque Country, and Italy), it will begin in Lille. Then because it will heat up from the middle onwards, as it used to: in the first ten stages, difficulties are zero or almost zero. It's the most French Tour in quite some time: the route respects the traditional 'loop' or Grande Boucle, without ever stepping outside the borders. A couple of time trials (33 flat kilometers on the fifth day in Caen, 11 uphill in the Pyrenees on the thirteenth), five summit finishes, with Hautacam, Mont Ventoux and Col de la Loze, many stages for attackers and sprinters: this is the menu proposed by an edition that on the last day in Paris, for the 50 years of finishes on the Champs-Élysées, offers three passages through Montmartre retracing the Olympic route. Italy, which in the new millennium has only won the 2014 edition with Nibali, presents a sprinter (Milan, at his debut) and a time trial specialist (Ganna), hoping to break a drought lasting 106 stages (the last one in 2019 by the usual Nibali). France is even worse off, having not won the Tour for exactly 40 years. Here are the ten faces worthy of the Arch of Triumph.

Tadej Pogacar. He wins because he has a different pace compared to the competition, because he has no rivals uphill, because being escorted by a potential winner like Almeida is a significant advantage. He doesn't win because the heat and Vingegaard could prove to be more difficult obstacles than expected.

Jonas Vingegaard. He wins because he remains the best alternative to Pogacar uphill, because he has saved all his energy for this appointment, because he has a phenomenal team supporting him. He doesn't win because this year's approach has not been smooth.

Remco Evenepoel. He wins because losing weight will help him uphill, because last year's podium convinced him he can do it, because when two designated fighters argue, the third one might benefit. He doesn't win because he also had a complicated spring and is feeling it in the long run.

Primoz Roglic. He wins because he needs to make up for his misfortune at the Giro, because by skipping half of the Italian campaign he hasn't worn himself out too much, because he's one of those who knows how to conquer grand tours. He doesn't win because at 35, his way of racing struggles to keep up with younger riders.

Florian Lipowitz. He wins because he knows how to go fast on all terrains, because at the Dauphiné he was the one who best withstood the impact of the best, because he won't be squeezed only in support of Roglic. He doesn't win because he still lacks something to consistently inhabit the top floors.

Matjas Skjelmose. He wins because he has grown year by year in grand tours, because he's strong in time trials and holds up uphill, because he's among the few who have beaten Pogacar in spring classics. He doesn't win because in a grand tour you can't have empty passages and he still has off days.

Ben O'Connor. He wins because uphill he's one of those who stays at the front, because doing well in Giro and Vuelta last year gave him more confidence, because at 29 you either win or settle for placement. He doesn't win because what he gains uphill he wastes in time trials.

Carlos Rodriguez. He wins because he's one who has a fixed spot in the top ten in grand tours, because he's difficult to drop in the mountains, because at 24 he has the opportunity to make the definitive quality leap. He doesn't win because this season, if he has hidden, he has done so brilliantly.

Santiago Buitrago. He wins because he has bet his entire season on the French campaign, because at his debut a year ago he finished in the top ten, because he can count on tough teammates like Lenny Martinez. He doesn't win because between spring and Dauphiné he never appeared brilliant.

Enric Mas. He wins because a Tour that puts mountains at the end suits him, because he's another one who stays until the last, because after a lifetime of placements he'll eventually find the right year. He doesn't win because before the third week he always finds a way to complicate his life.