It remains the most enigmatic, the least predictable. Nibali won it, the last of ours to succeed in the last decade, Sagan, the most suitable of all, did not win it. Even Pogacar, who races like a Martian in the classics, has not yet made it his own. Of the classics that matter, Milan-Sanremo is the easiest and at the same time the most complicated: it winks at many, but does not give itself to everyone. It is the longest (289 kilometers from Pavia to the city of flowers), the most predictable in its script (over six hours of yawning before a formidable adrenaline rush with ten minutes up and down the Poggio) and has a charm that no great champion can resist. Of those already in the golden book, seven are at the start (Degenkolb, Kwiatkowski, Alaphilippe, Stuyven, Mohoric, Van der Poel and Philipsen). The last success in the rainbow jersey was by an Italian (Saronni, in 1983), and little has been seen of Italians in this millennium (five victories in total, the last seven years ago). Here are the ten most accredited faces to win the bike festival.

Tadej Pogacar. He wins because it's the challenge that intrigues him the most, because he has superior climbing power, because winning with the world champion's jersey is an extra stimulus. He doesn't win because this classic always has a way of disrupting even the strongest rider's plans.

Mathieu Van der Poel. He wins because he has more ways to do it, because he's always at the front in the finale of this classic, because he used Tirreno Adriatico this year to get in top shape. He doesn't win because he started the season late and his thoughts are mainly focused on the North.

Filippo Ganna. He wins because it's one of the classics most suited to his build, because his second place two years ago is a signal and not an episode, because he has never been as ready as this year. He doesn't win because there are those who have something more than him on short climbs.

Jasper Philipsen. He wins because he succeeded a year ago, because in spring he considers himself a classics rider and not just a sprinter, because in case of a sprint he has an extra gear compared to everyone else. He doesn't win because being bruised from a crash three days before the race doesn't help.

Mads Pedersen. He wins because he's going extremely fast, because he's the first option for a team that offers Stuyven and Milan as alternatives, because in the three editions he's raced, he's finished in the top six each time. He doesn't win because not loving this classic takes something away from him.

Tom Pidcock. He wins because he's in great form, because he doesn't drop on short climbs and isn't static in a sprint, because winning a major classic is his main goal. He doesn't win because he's been going strong for two months and fatigue might catch up with him.

Julian Alaphilippe. He wins because this is the classic he does best, because his new team is proving to be an extra stimulus, because he hasn't won this season but has helped his teammates win. He doesn't win because compared to the phenomena he seems to have something less.

Olav Kooij. He wins because he's one of the most in-form sprinters at the moment, because without Van Aert in the team he has more chances, because a year ago at his debut he was close to fighting for the victory. He doesn't win because the infernal pace in the finale will suffocate him and those like him.

Michael Matthews. He wins because he's raced at the front of Sanremo more than anyone, because after a second place and two thirds he can complete the job, because so far he's only raced Paris-Nice without exhausting himself. He doesn't win because at 35 years old, it might be a heavy tax in this cycling.

Biniam Girmay. He wins because this is one of the classics most suited to him, because he wants to become the first African to conquer a monument, because he's another who holds on climbs and has a sprint kick. He doesn't win because he hasn't raced for a month and might lack brilliance.