The 2026 Vuelta a España is about to start and the hunt for the best climber's jersey will begin immediately: who will be Jay Vine's successor? If there is one classification that more than any other tells the soul of the Vuelta a España, it is that of the climbers. And in the 2026 edition, starting from Monaco on August 22nd, the battle for the blue polka dot jersey promises to be particularly interesting.

For two consecutive years Vine has conquered the climbers' classification. The Australian from UAE Emirates-XRG will try to defend his title, but this time he will have to deal with a cumbersome teammate: Tadej Pogacar. The world champion will indeed be one of the most anticipated riders at the Vuelta and, even without making the best climber's jersey one of his main objectives, could become the rider to beat for this classification as well.

The question is then inevitable: who will be Vine's successor? Or will it be Pogacar himself who conquers a new double?

Unlike the Tour de France, the Vuelta's climbers' classification is historically much more open to riders who also fight for the general classification. The reason is mainly in the points allocation system. In Spain, not only the major mountains are rewarded, but also numerous second and third category climbs. This allows an attacker to accumulate points by entering breakaways and passing first over a series of less demanding ascents.

This year the fourth category has also been eliminated. The highest point in the regulations remains, however, the Collado del Alguacil, a special category climb included in the twentieth stage.

Here 15 points will be awarded to the first rider, 10 to the second, 6 to the third, 4 to the fourth, 2 to the fifth and 1 to the sixth.

And there is a detail that could prove decisive: in case of a tie at the end of the race, it will be precisely the result on the Collado del Alguacil that determines the winner of the climbers' classification.

Collado del Alguacil – special category: points 15-10-6-4-2-1

16 first category climbs: points 10-6-4-2-1

15 second category climbs: points 5-3-1

19 third category climbs: points 3-2-1

In total, therefore, there will be many opportunities to collect points. And this makes the classification extremely difficult to predict on the eve of the race.

The name to put ahead of all others is inevitably that of Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian arrives at the Vuelta with the main objective of conquering the red jersey, but his way of racing could naturally lead him towards the climbers' classification.

When Pogacar attacks uphill, in fact, he rarely limits himself to gaining a few seconds. If he spots the right opportunity, he aims for stage victory, accumulates advantage and simultaneously pockets points for the mountain classification. The most significant precedent is the 2024 Giro d'Italia, when the Slovenian superstar dominated the race also conquering the climbers' classification.

The same scenario could repeat itself at the Vuelta. If Pogacar were to win several mountain stages, he could quickly reach 50-60 points and make a comeback by specialists practically impossible.

But there is another possibility. With the World Championships and Europeans still in sight after the Vuelta, Pogacar could decide to manage his energy more carefully. In that case, UAE Emirates-XRG could adopt an even more interesting team strategy: leave room for Jay Vine or Pablo Torres to attack and collect points.

A sort of team rule that would allow UAE to have men in breakaways without forcing Pogacar to spend unnecessary energy. So, returning to the last winner of the climbers' jersey, Jay Vine has conquered the classification in the last two editions and could become the first rider capable of winning it for three consecutive years. But the presence of Pogacar inevitably changes his plans.

If the world champion were to decide to race aggressively, it would be almost impossible for Vine to compete directly with his own captain. If instead Pogacar chooses to save energy on certain days, the Australian could become one of the main breakaway men of the Vuelta.

And breakaways, in the long run, can be the ideal terrain to conquer the jersey. But UAE will not race alone and among the most dangerous candidates is Richard Carapaz.

The Ecuadorian is exactly the type of rider who can transform the climbers' classification into a concrete objective: an attacker, resilient, capable of winning a stage from far away and above all skilled at reading race situations.

At the Tour de France he has already demonstrated his ability to collect points on climbs by entering breakaways and, after conquering the polka dot jersey in the Grande Boucle, he could attempt a new feat in Spain.

The question is suggestive: from the polka dot jersey of the Tour to that of the Vuelta? Carapaz could also try to defend a good position in the general classification, but if he were to lose ground from the best in the first few weeks, the climbers' classification would quickly become one of his main objectives.

Another rider to follow will be Valentin Paret-Peintre. The Frenchman from Soudal Quick-Step has ideal characteristics for the hardest days and could transform himself into one of the great stage hunters of the Vuelta.

The same applies to Tobias Halland Johannessen. The Norwegian from Uno-X Mobility is an excellent climber and, if he manages to remain competitive in the general classification, could simultaneously play for a top ten finish and the climbers' jersey.

This is precisely one of the most fascinating aspects of the Vuelta: a rider can start thinking about the general classification and, after a few days, find himself completely changing his objective.

Pay attention also to Primoz Roglic. The Slovenian knows the Vuelta perfectly: he has won it four times and returns this year with a different role than in the past. After the accident that affected his preparation, the general classification may no longer be his only objective. If Roglic were to lose ground from the main favorites, he could transform himself into a stage hunter. And a Roglic free from general classification responsibilities would be a very dangerous opponent in the fight for the climbers' jersey.

Among the riders who could build their Vuelta on breakaways is Lorenzo Fortunato. The Italian from XDS Astana knows perfectly well how to conquer a classification of this type: in 2025 he won the climbers' jersey at the Giro d'Italia. Fortunato could therefore have a very clear objective from the start in Monaco: seek the right breakaways, accumulate points and try to build a sufficient advantage before the last major mountains.

But the list of possible protagonists is long. There are Sepp Kuss and Jørgen Nordhagen from Visma | Lease a Bike, both potentially free to seek space in mountain stages; Paul Double and Koen Bouwman from Jayco AlUla, a team that traditionally is not afraid to attack from far away. And then there are Pablo Castrillo, Raul Garcia Pierna, Enric Mas, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Carlos Rodriguez and Oscar Onley. For some the general classification will remain the priority, but one bad day is enough to completely change perspective.

The climbers' classification cannot be predicted simply by looking at the list of starters. It will depend on how the race develops. Who will lose ground in the general classification? Which captain will have a difficult day? How much space will Pogacar concede to breakaways? Which teams will be willing to control? These are questions that are impossible to answer today.

For this reason, in addition to the big names, you will need to keep an eye on riders like Jarno Widar, Ramses Debruyne, Steff Cras, Luke Tuckwell, Jan Hirt, Harold Tejada, Cristian Rodriguez, Jesus Herrada, David De la Cruz and Guillaume Martin. They are men who could become protagonists precisely when the race begins to take a direction different from what was imagined on the eve.

In the end, however, the question remains the initial one: who will be Jay Vine's successor? Pogacar starts ahead of everyone, simply because when a rider of his level faces a Vuelta with so many mountains, it is impossible not to consider him the favorite.

But the climbers' classification could tell a completely different story. If Pogacar dominates, the jersey will probably be his. If instead he decides to control the race and leave room for attackers, a spectacular battle could open up between specialists, general classification riders and stage hunters. And precisely for this reason the jersey dedicated to climbers could become one of the most fascinating of the 2026 Vuelta.

On August 22nd, from Monaco, the hunt will begin. And on the first Spanish mountains we will immediately understand whether it will be Pogacar who dictates the law or if, once again, it will be the breakaway that writes the story.