The 2026 Vuelta a España is preparing for three weeks of racing under the sign of the mountains, with the start from Monaco on August 22nd and a route that, at least on paper, seems to leave little room for pure sprinters. Yet there is a jersey that in recent years has almost systematically ended up on the shoulders of a sprinter: the points classification.

The question, on the eve of the 81st edition of the Spanish race, is inevitable: will it happen again?

The paradox of the Vuelta is right here. A race built around climbs, with only four stages classified as flat, can still reward a fast and resilient rider. The reason lies in the scoring system introduced in 2021, which has profoundly changed the strategy for winning the green jersey.

Until 2020, the stage winner received 25 points, regardless of the characteristics of the stage. A victory in a bunch sprint was therefore worth as much as a success at the top of a climb.

From 2021 onwards, the organizers instead differentiated the points based on the difficulty of the stage. A victory in a flat stage is worth 50 points, while the first classified in a hilly stage receives 30. For a mountain stage or an individual time trial, the winner earns only 20 points.

A huge difference, which has ended up favoring riders capable of being competitive especially in fast finishes. This year there are only four stages defined as flat: the 8th, 11th, 17th and 21st. Seven are instead hilly stages and as many as eight are mountain stages. To these are added the two individual time trials.

Points Assignment
Flat stages: 50-30-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2 points.

Hilly stages: 30-25-22-19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2.

Mountain stages and time trials: 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1.

But there is another novelty that in recent years has acquired increasing weight: intermediate sprints. The first classified receives 20 points, the second 17, the third 15, the fourth 13 and the fifth 10.

In the past the points were decidedly more limited: today, therefore, a rider aiming for the green jersey must be present even far from the finish line. In case of a tie, the number of stage wins counts first, then the number of intermediate sprint wins and finally the position in the general classification.

The natural big favorite would be Mads Pedersen. The Danish rider from Lidl-Trek has built over the years a true collection of points jerseys in the Grand Tours: Giro d'Italia 2025, Tour de France 2026 and Vuelta a España 2022 and 2025. His main characteristic is precisely what is needed to win this classification: he is not just a sprinter. Pedersen can collect points in sprints, resist on short climbs and tackle moving stages with profit.

Yet there is a problem: Pedersen has stated that he no longer wants to aim for the points classification. After completing the trilogy with his Tour success, the Danish rider explained that he wants to concentrate his energy on other objectives in the Grand Tours. It remains to be seen whether he will keep this promise even when the race enters its decisive phase.

Because one thing is certain: if Pedersen found himself halfway through the Vuelta with the green jersey within reach, it would be difficult to imagine that he could decide to let it slip away.

So, if Pedersen should not be interested in the points classification, then among the most interesting candidates is Wout van Aert. The Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike already knows the Vuelta very well. In 2024 he was one of the great protagonists of the race: he won three stages, accumulated an enormous amount of points and seemed set to win the points classification.

Then came the crash at Lagos de Covadonga. The dream of the green jersey vanished along with the possibility of completing that Vuelta as a protagonist. Two years later, Van Aert returns to Spain with the opportunity to take his revenge.

His candidacy, however, will have to contend with the presence of Matthew Brennan, a young teammate who could have opportunities in the sprints. If Van Aert is called upon to work for the Briton, he will inevitably lose precious opportunities to accumulate points. If instead Visma decides to aim for the Belgian also for the points classification, Van Aert could become one of the main contenders. Another name to keep an eye on is Thibau Nys.

The Belgian from Lidl-Trek makes his Vuelta debut and possesses perfect characteristics for a race like this. He is fast, explosive and above all capable of overcoming short and demanding climbs.

The seven hilly stages could become his ideal terrain. Nys could collect precious points precisely on the days when pure sprinters will be forced to make way for more complete riders. The problem is his preparation: the season has not been linear and arriving at 100% to such a tough Vuelta will be fundamental.

Then there is him. Tadej Pogacar does not need the green jersey to make a Vuelta special, but precisely for this reason he could become an extremely dangerous candidate. The world champion returns to the Spanish race for the first time since 2019 and starts with enormous ambitions. If he were to dominate the hilly and mountain stages as well, he could accumulate enough points to enter the fight.

The system introduced in 2021 indeed makes a particular situation possible: a general classification rider can collect many points without being a sprinter.

Pogacar could win stages, place in the top positions and take points in intermediate sprints. But there is a difficulty: in the four flat stages, where 50 points are available for the winner, the Slovenian phenomenon would risk losing ground compared to sprinters.

To truly win the green jersey he would therefore need to be extremely present in the intermediate sprints as well.

And above all he would need to have the will to pursue a secondary classification that, compared to the red jersey, certainly does not represent his priority.

Among the specialists, the name of Kaden Groves deserves particular mention. The Australian from Alpecin-PremierTech has already won the Vuelta points classification twice and knows the formula of the Spanish race perfectly.

His candidacy, however, comes accompanied by some questions about his condition. The season has so far not delivered the best Groves and the Vuelta will represent a sort of appeal test. If he finds the legs of his best days, he could be a protagonist again. And in a race with so few opportunities for sprinters, already having experience in managing the classification can make the difference.

The list of possible protagonists is in any case long. Jordi Meeus from Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe can be competitive in the sprints, while Orluis Aular from Movistar represents one of the most interesting candidacies among riders capable of combining speed and endurance.

Pay attention also to Axel Laurance, Alberto Dainese, Magnus Cort, Henok Mulubrhan, Bryan Coquard and Pau Miquel. Riders different from each other, but united by the possibility of collecting points on multiple occasions and, above all, by the ability to survive in a Vuelta in which the true sprinter could be forced to abandon the points race well before Madrid.

The 2026 Vuelta therefore presents a curious paradox. The route seems made for climbers, the regulations continue instead to wink at fast riders.

Since 2021 the system has transformed the points classification into a game of strategy. It is no longer enough to win a few sprints: you need to understand where to collect points, which breakaways to let go, which intermediate sprints to tackle and above all how to survive the mountains.

In recent years the green jersey has almost always remained in the hands of a sprinter. But this time the great specialists will not be numerous in Monaco. So pay attention to Van Aert, Pedersen, Groves and Nys. But also to Pogacar.

Because in such a tough Vuelta, the green jersey might not be won by the fastest, but by the most complete rider. And after three weeks of mountains, breakaways, sprints and battles, it could be precisely this classification that is hardest to read until the last kilometer of Madrid.